The influence of russia-Ukraine war on China-Europe Freight train

On February 24, Putin announced a special military operation in Ukraine, officially beginning the Russia-Ukraine war. It took Less than a day for Russia to push its forces into Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.

The speed is fast, the time is short, and the precision of the attack makes people sigh with emotion: the war between modern small countries and big countries is like an ant and an elephant arm wrestling, there is no suspense at all!

People from across the border must be paying more attention to the Russia-Ukraine war than the general public! At present, domestic cross-border e-commerce customers, especially those of Amazon in the Western European market, are very concerned about whether the situation between Russia and Ukraine will affect the China-Europe freight train service.

Although the Russia-Ukraine war will lead to the paralysis of the land transportation in Ukraine, we expect that the closure of Ukraine's European gate will not have a great impact on the China-Europe freight trains for the time being.

Why is it that the russia-Ukraine war will not have a big impact on china-Europe freight trains for the time being? We mainly analyze it from the following aspects:

I. Current route of China-Europe freight train

According to the road map of china-Europe Freight train, there are three main routes of china-Europe freight train delivered by Chinese cross-border sellers:

Article 1: Alashan Pass (Khorgos), Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland

Article 2: Manzhouli (Suifenhe), Russia, Belarus, Poland

Article 3: Lianyungang -- Kazakhstan -- Azerbaijan -- Georgia -- Turkey

Most of the China-Europe freight trains that transport cross-border e-commerce goods in the market go through the first and second lines.

Although china-Europe freight trains used to pass through The Ukrainian line, the Ukrainian line was temporarily deployed due to the situation of the mainstream line, not the main line of china-Europe freight trains. Therefore, from the current route of China-Europe freight train, the russia-Ukraine war has little impact on china-Europe freight train!

Ii. Will the Belarus sector be affected?

Belarus, a pro-russian country of the same origin as Russia, is the main route for the China-Europe railway. The Eu has decided to impose sanctions on Belarus for supporting Russia's special military operations in Ukraine while the West imposed massive sanctions on Russia.

Will western sanctions on Belarus directly affect the transport of china-Europe freight trains in Belarus?

We think that's also less likely. First of all, the Western sanctions against Belarus are not as severe as those against Russia. They only restrict certain exports of Belarus and do not impose an embargo on its airspace, territorial waters and territory.

Even if western sanctions against Belarus escalate to this level as the war develops, it will only affect the country's own freight trains. In fact, the China-Europe freight train belongs to China, and Belarus is just a route country for this freight train, so it should not be subject to sanctions.

Just as the west has banned Russian airlines from flying, but only for Russia's own airlines, Chinese airlines can still enter the western skies from Russia!

Iii. Will the War between Russia and Ukraine expand?

Is it possible that the Russia-Ukraine war will be extended to include both pro-Russia and anti-Russia countries, so that the China-Europe freight train route will be interrupted due to a full-scale war?

We think this is very small. Considering the current attitude of western countries towards the Russia-Ukraine war, it is almost certain that western countries will not directly participate in the war. They basically take sanctions against Russia, assistance to Ukraine and isolation of Russia as means to force Russia to end the war as soon as possible. With Russia's intimidating nuclear stick, an all-out war between the West and Russia is almost impossible!

Whether the Russia-Ukraine war will affect the normal operation of China-Europe freight trains, chongqing-Xinjiang-Europe railway freight trains, Chengdu Railway Freight trains, Xi 'an International Land Port and other relevant companies have issued notices saying that the russia-Ukraine conflict will not affect china-Europe freight trains for the time being!

IV. Our suggestions

There are so many uncertainties in the war that it is impossible to predict with any accuracy what impact the war between Russia and Ukraine will have on the whole world. No one would have thought that the first World War would be triggered by a gunshot in Sarajevo.

If the sellers are worried about the China-Europe freight train, they can take some China-Europe shipping appropriately. At present, most shipping routes from China to Europe are far away from war zones, and the two main shipping routes of China-Europe shipping are as follows:

1. (China) - South China Sea - Strait of Malacca - Bay of Bengal - Indian Ocean - Arabia - Strait of Mandeb - Red Sea - Suez Canal - Mediterranean - Strait of Gibraltar - North Atlantic - (Europe)

2. (China) - South China Sea - Strait of Malacca - Bay of Bengal - Indian Ocean - Cape of Good Hope - South Atlantic - Coast of West Africa - North Atlantic - (Europe)

Both shipments do not pass through the maritime zone controlled by Ukraine. Therefore, the russia-Ukraine war will have little impact on the safety and stability of shipping between Central Europe and China. However, due to the war caused by the surge of bulk commodities, especially fuel oil, may have a certain impact on the future shipping prices!

The world is praying for peace, we are not in a peaceful era but live in a peaceful country, as Chinese children we feel very happy and proud. At the same time, we also hope that the War between Russia and Ukraine will end at an early date and the world will be restored as before.